With world energy prices and climate-altering
greenhouse gas emissions ballooning in tandem
with a surge in energy demand from the hot
economies of China, India and Brazil, the world
has a major stake in the success of energy
reduction efforts, particularly in those three
countries, warn experts concluding a four-year
international project.
Without significant gains from energy
efficiency efforts, China, India and Brazil
within a single human generation (by 2030) will
more than double their energy use and greenhouse
gas emissions, resulting in major impacts on
global energy markets and climate. However,
experts estimate that cost-effective retrofits
could reduce those countries’ energy use today
by at least 25% and advanced technologies could
reduce their energy use growth projected through
2030 by at least 10% (and reduce projected CO2
emission growth by 16%).
China, India and Brazil, already rank among
the world’s top 10 energy consumers with
astonishing economic growth rates nearing 10 %
per year; they are on track to becoming the
world’s major greenhouse gas emitters. Although
today they emit just 10% as much greenhouse gas
per capita as North America, their national
emissions are rising far faster. China's
emissions, for instance, are expected to double
by 2020, in which case China will surpass the US
as the leading source of climate-altering gases.
By one estimate, the China power market will
require an average 48 gigawatts of new capacity
every year, equal to two-thirds of the UK’s
total installed capacity.
Global GDP is projected to more than double
by 2030, 80% of that growth accounted for by
non-OECD countries, where current energy
intensity of GDP (expressed as barrels of oil
equivalent—BOE—per $1,000 of GDP) was
approximately three times that of the OECD
countries in 2005. Without gains in energy
efficiency, such global GDP growth would raise
daily global energy demand from 205 million BOE
today to more than 500 million BOE by 2030.
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